UTILIZATION AND CHALLENGES OF TRADITIONAL WEATHER FORECASTING IN IKARA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA, KADUNA STATE, NIGERIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10/3303/jees.2026.0301/022Keywords:
Adaptation, Agriculture, Indigenous knowledge, Socioeconomic characteristicsAbstract
This study analyzed the challenges of using traditional weather forecasting among farmers in the Ikara Local Government Area, Kaduna State, Nigeria. A total of 384 farmers were purposively sampled to identify respondents knowledgeable about indigenous forecasting practices. Data were collected through questionnaires and interviews and analyzed using descriptive statistics and chi-square tests. The results revealed that the majority of respondents were aged 61–65 years (26%), predominantly male (66%), and married (49%), with farming experience spanning more than 50 years (28%). Findings showed that traditional forecasting is still widely practiced, but major challenges remain: 90% of farmers reported that some traditional indicators are difficult to interpret without elders, and 86% observed that certain indicators (such as bird migration and ant mounds) are no longer easily observable. In comparison, 85% noted that both climate change and modern meteorological forecasts reduce Reliability and reliance on traditional methods. The chi-square test (χ² = 38.29, p = 0.001) revealed a significant association between farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics and the challenges they face in using indigenous forecasting. The study concludes that although traditional forecasting remains relevant, its sustainability is threatened by climate variability, biodiversity loss, and generational gaps. The study, therefore, recommends strengthening extension services, documenting indigenous knowledge, and integrating traditional and modern forecasting systems to improve farmers’ adaptive capacity.
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