GEOSPATIAL PROJECTION OF FOREST COVER DYNAMICS IN CENTRAL ADAMAWA STATE, NIGERIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10/3303/jees.2026.0301/030Keywords:
Geospatial Projection, Deforestation, Land use/landcover, Remote SensingAbstract
Forests play a central role in sustaining biodiversity and regulating climate, yet they continue to face intense anthropogenic pressures across Nigeria. This study assessed past and future changes in forest trees within Adamawa State’s central zone using geospatial techniques. Landsat 4 and 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data for 1990, 2000, 2013, and 2021 were sourced from the United States Geological Survey repository. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was employed to evaluate forest cover changes and to project scenarios through 2050 using a linear trend model. Results revealed a substantial increase in high-density forest cover (high NDVI) between 1990 and 2000 of 230.2 km² (5.07%), but declines between 2000 and 2013 of 183.9 km² (-15.05%) and between 2013 and 2021 of 420.7 km² (-48.38%). Predictions indicate temporary regeneration by 2030 (197.99 km²), followed by severe reduction to 67.30 km² in 2040 and further loss by 2050 (-63.39 km²). Conversely, medium NDVI values (shrubs and grassland) showed steady increases, while low NDVI areas fluctuated with an overall trend of expansion. The findings suggest that unless effective conservation and sustainable land management practices are adopted, the study area will continue to experience drastic forest depletion driven by agricultural expansion, overgrazing, urbanization, and climate change. This poses serious implications for biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and ecosystem services.
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